Beware The Mirages of Time
There exists a popular illusion that somehow tomorrow will eventually be like yesterday.
Time repeats itself. It’s a tale as old as time.
While patterns and trends do exist across time, this doesn’t mean much except that there is a similar piece of hardware our culture relies on. As humans we build on the ideas of our ancestors. We need the past in order to build the culture and society we occupy.
Many of us feel trap in this moment. We feel isolated as we watch our collective confusion on full display as if something like this has never happened before. Sometimes the idea of history repeating is a self soothing behavior, a way of accepting the struggles of the past as fixed in our reality. Sometimes it’s a way to understand the ups or downs of collective human action. We must not let time be made of quicksand, pulling us back into the fixed possibilities of the past. Time is not a crutch, we need to take action to improve today. Saying today is the same as yesterday, it is like giving up.
Certainly from our lived perspectives, time emerges from the colliding past and imagined future to inform our individual present. It is contextualized by our contemporary environment and the influencers of today. There is an emergence that weaves together our reality from the collection of individual spaces.
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Why is it so important to step outside of the illusion that history repeats itself?
We are living in a time of rapid technological growth, this changes the dynamics of any repeating patterns. While situations may emerge that seem similar to a historical event, one shouldn’t assume our possibilities are confined to that of the historical event. While it may be beneficial to consider historical precedent, we shouldn’t forget that weight of the tools and social dynamics which almost certainly have change from that point. Science is imperfect by definition, it is trying to explain something unexplainable.
Human beings build on the knowledge of those who come before us. Our scientific knowledge generally increases over time (though setbacks may occur). Our educational systems have improved across time and have been multiplied by the transparent power of the internet (where available).
The History of Vaccines, the “Spanish Flu” and our “China Virus”
In some ways our fight against the invisible enemies of humans (virus, bacteria, germs, memes) has been constant. Accounts from the 1500s describe smallpox inoculation as practiced in China and India. While the methods of managing these outbreaks have change, it has more to do with refinement than any particularly new concepts. Let’s take a selective tour.
The history of vaccines is fascinating. The select timeline examples below were sourced from https://www.historyofvaccines.org
1648 — Quarantine in Boston
In response to epidemics of yellow fever in Barbados, Cuba, and the Yucatan, a strict quarantine was established in Boston, Massachusetts, for all ships arriving from the West Indies.
1776 — Smallpox Becomes a Weapon of War
Of a force of 10,000 Continental Army soldiers in Quebec, about 5,000 fell ill with smallpox. A British commander may have deliberately intended to spread the disease by sending recently variolated civilians into Continental Army encampments.
1777 — Mandatory Inoculation for Continental Army
George Washington, commander-in-chief of the Continental Army, based at his headquarters in Morristown, New Jersey, ordered mandatory inoculation for troops if they had not survived a smallpox infection earlier in life.
1792 — Stricter Regulations Passed for Inoculation
The Commonwealth of Virginia passed an act to consolidate previously passed acts regulating smallpox inoculation into one. The new act included a penalty of $1,500 or six months’ imprisonment for anyone willfully spreading smallpox in a manner other than specified by the act.
1800 — Waterhouse Brings Vaccination to the States
Benjamin Waterhouse (1754–1846), a Harvard professor of medicine, performed the first U.S. vaccinations on his children. He went on to put much effort into encouraging public vaccination.
1879 — First Laboratory Vaccine
Louis Pasteur produced the first laboratory-developed vaccine: the vaccine for chicken cholera (Pasteurella multocida).
1918 — Influenza: Spanish Influenza Pandemic and Vaccines
In the deadly Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918–19, investigators attempted to develop vaccines to prevent influenza, though they had not yet correctly identified the causative pathogen. Read a more in depth history of the 1918 Flu Pandemic.
1926 — Opposition to Vaccination Grows
Despite vaccination’s successes against smallpox, opposition to vaccination continued through the 1920s, particularly against compulsory vaccination. In 1926, a group of health officers visited Georgetown, Delaware, to vaccinate the townspeople. A retired Army lieutenant and a city councilman led an armed mob to force them out, successfully preventing the vaccination attempt.
1933 — Influenza: Influenza Virus Isolated
British scientists Wilson Smith, MD, C.H. Andrewes, MD, and P.P. Laidlaw isolated influenza virus. Widespread influenza in early 1933 gave these scientists the chance to demonstrate the cause of the disease.
1945 — Influenza Vaccine Approved
The first influenza vaccine was approved for military use in the United States in 1945 and civilian use in 1946. This whole-virus, inactivated influenza A and B vaccine had been tested in military recruits and college students before approval.
1948 — Changes in Vaccine Production
The newly established World Health Organization issued a report praising the freeze-dried vacuum-packed vaccine from the Vaccine Institute in Paris. Production of the vaccine soon spread around the world.
1949 — Breakthrough in Culturing Viruses
In Boston, the team of John Enders, PhD (1897–1985), Thomas Weller, MD (1915–2008), and Frederick Robbins, MD (1916–2003), showed that they could grow polioviruses in non-nervous tissue — namely human embryonic skin and muscle tissue. This landmark finding would reduce reliance on using live monkeys for growing and testing virus. No longer would polio research be restricted to facilities that could house large numbers of experimental animals.
1954 — Massive Polio Vaccine Trial Begins in U.S.
The Vaccine Advisory Committee approved a field test of Salk’s polio vaccine. The trial began the next day, with the vaccination of thousands of schoolchildren. In all, over 1.3 million children participated in the trial.
1955 — Polio Vaccination Suspended
Leonard Scheele, MD, the U.S. Surgeon General, suspended the polio vaccination program in order to investigate the safety of all six manufacturers’ vaccine.
The full review concluded that 11 people died from the vaccine and hundreds were paralyzed. Though the cause of the disaster was never proven, it is likely that certain production methods (which, it turns out, did not follow Salk’s instructions) resulted in a failure to completely kill the Type 1 (Mahoney) poliovirus in the vaccine.
1965 — Testing of Mumps Vaccine
Maurice Hilleman and colleagues began to test their experimental mumps vaccine in Philadelphia-area institutions for the mentally retarded. Tests showed that the children developed antibodies to mumps. Later, area nursery schools and kindergartens participated in the tests, and the vaccine was shown to be effective in preventing mumps. While testing of vaccines on mentally retarded children was not uncommon, this practice would be frowned upon today.
1976 — Swine Influenza Vaccine
Maurice Hilleman and other scientists met with U.S. President Gerald Ford to discuss a vaccine response to an outbreak of swine influenza at Fort Dix, New Jersey. Congress committed funds to a nationwide vaccination program.
1989 — Low Vaccination Rates Lead to Outbreaks
Over the period 1989–1991, measles outbreaks sickened a reported 55,622 Americans, killing 123. Of all of the cities that suffered from the outbreaks, Philadelphia was hit hardest: 1,500 children fell ill and 9, most of whom had not been vaccinated, died.
These cherry picked examples describe real possibilities (outbreaks, attempts to control those negative impacts) that could in some ways be seem to “repeat” but it’s never an exact copy because the environment and people are in a constant state of flux. The invisible hand of human understanding is pushing our knowledge forward so even if patterns recurs, we have different knowledge and tools to deal with these issues.
2019 — The Novel Coronavirus, COVID-19 or the “China Virus”
One big difference between the “Spanish Flu” and Covid-19 is the time in which they occurred.
President Trump talks about the fight against COVID-19 as a war against an invisible enemy. But in some ways, he treats it as the invisible enemy of his political career. “I wanted to always play it down,” Trump told Woodward on March 19, days after he declared a national emergency. “I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.”
A little over 100 years ago, President Woodrow Wilson was fighting both kinds of war: the Great War in Europe was in its final stages as the flu pandemic swept the globe, including the United States. Wilson chose to focus on the battlefronts of Europe. Reportedly he virtually ignoring the disease that ravaged the home front and killed about 675,000 Americans.
Let’s take a look at timeline of events and ask ourselves, how similar is this to something we would have done 100 years ago? How do these differences impact our contemporary situation?
Abridged timeline outline (with further details available) thanks to The American Journal of Managed Care.
https://www.ajmc.com/view/a-timeline-of-covid19-developments-in-2020
The Covid-19 Context Timeline
January 9 — WHO Announces Mysterious Coronavirus-Related Pneumonia in Wuhan, China
January 20 — CDC Says 3 US Airports Will Begin Screening for Coronavirus
January 21 — CDC Confirms First US Coronavirus Case
January 21 — Chinese Scientist Confirms COVID-19 Human Transmission
January 23 — Wuhan Now Under Quarantine
January 31 — WHO Issues Global Health Emergency
February 2 — Global Air Travel Is Restricted
February 3 — US Declares Public Health Emergency
February 10 — China’s COVID-19 Deaths Exceed Those of SARS Crisis
February 25 — CDC Says COVID-19 Is Heading Toward Pandemic Status
March 6 — 21 Passengers on California Cruise Ship Test Positive
March 11 — WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic
March 13 — Trump Declares COVID-19 a National Emergency
March 13 — Travel Ban on Non-US Citizens Traveling From Europe Goes Into Effect
March 17 — University of Minnesota Begins Testing Hydroxychloroquine
March 17 — CMS Temporarily Expands Use of Telehealth
March 17 — Administration Asks Congress to Send Americans Direct Financial Relief
March 19 — California Issues Statewide Stay-at-Home Order
March 25 — Reports Find Extended Shutdowns Can Delay Second Wave
March 26 — Senate Passes CARES Act
March 27 — Trump Signs CARES Act Into Law
March 30 — FDA Authorizes Use of Hydroxychloroquine
March 31 — COVID-19 Can Be Transmitted Through the Eye
April 8 — Troubles With the COVID-19 Cocktail
April 16 — “Gating Criteria” Emerge as a Way to Reopen the Economy
April 28 — Young, Poor Avoid Care for COVID-19 Symptoms
April 29 — NIH Trial Shows Early Promise for Remdesivir
May 1 — Remdesivir Wins EUA
May 9 — Saliva-Based Diagnostic Test Allowed for At-Home Use
May 12 — Death Toll Likely Underestimated, Fauci Testifies
May 21 — United States and AstraZeneca Form Vaccine Deal
May 28 — US COVID-19 Deaths Pass the 100,000 Mark
June 4 — Lancet, NEJM Retract COVID-19 Studies on Hydroxychloroquine
June 10 — US COVID-19 Cases Reach 2 Million
June 16 — HHS Announces COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Will Be Free for Some
June 18 — WHO Ends Study Into Hydroxychloroquine
June 20 — NIH Halts Trial of Hydroxychloroquine
June 22 — Study Suggests 80% of Cases in March Went Undetected
June 26 — White House Coronavirus Task Force Addresses Rising Cases in the South
June 29 — Gilead Sets Price for Remdesivir at $3120
June 30 — Fauci Warns New COVID-19 Cases Could Hit 100,000 a Day
July 2 — States Reverse Reopening Plans
July 6 — Scientists, Citing Airborne Transmission, Ask WHO to Revise Guidance
July 7 — CMS Plans to Pay More for Home Dialysis Equipment
July 7 — US Surpasses 3 Million Infections, Begins WHO Withdrawal
July 9 — WHO Announces COVID-19 Can Be Airborne
July 14 — States With COVID-19 Spikes Report Greatest Health Insurance Coverage Losses
July 14 — Early Moderna Data Point to Vaccine Candidate’s Efficacy
July 15 — New Hospital Data Reporting Protocol Prompts Concern
July 16 — US Reports New Record of Daily COVID-19 Cases
July 20 — Diagnostic Delays From COVID-19 May Increase Cancer-Related Deaths
July 21 — Vaccines From AstraZeneca, CanSino Biologics Show Promising Results
July 22 — HHS, DOD Announce Vaccine Distribution Agreement With Pfizer and BioNTech
July 23 — Antibody Levels Drop After First 3 Months of COVID-19 Infection
July 23 — Antibody Cocktail May Treat, Prevent COVID-19
July 27 — Moderna Vaccine Begins Phase 3 Trial, Receives $472M From Trump Administration
July 27 — Senate Introduces HEALS Act
July 29 — FDA Grants Truvian EUA for Rapid Antibody Test
August 3 — New US Pandemic Phase; US to Pay Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline $2B for Vaccine
August 4 — Rural Hotspots Face Lack of Intensive Care Unit Beds
August 7 — Talks Stall on Second Relief Package
August 11 — Trump Administration Reaches Deal With Moderna
August 12 — Severe Obesity Increases Mortality Risk From COVID-19
August 13 — Biden Calls for 3-Month Mask Mandate
August 15 — FDA Approves Saliva Test
August 17 — COVID-19 Now the Third-Leading Cause of Death in the US
August 23 — Convalescent Plasma Is Cleared for Use by FDA
August 24 — Remdesivir’s Clinical Benefits Questioned
August 25 — CDC Changes Testing Guidance, but Later Reverses Itself
August 26 — FDA Grants EUA to Abbott’s Rapid Test
August 28 — First Known Case of COVID-19 Reinfection Reported in the US
September 1 — US Rejects WHO Global COVID-19 Vaccine Effort
September 3 — Steroids Reduce Mortality in Severe Cases; Sanofi, GSK Begin Human Vaccine Trials
September 3 — Bioethicists Weigh In on Equitable Vaccine Distribution
September 8 — AstraZeneca Halts Phase 3 Vaccine Trial
September 14 — US Airports Stop Screening International Travelers
September 14 — Pfizer, BioNTech Expand Phase 3 Trial
September 14 — NIH Launches Investigation Into Halted Astrazeneca Trial
September 15 — CDC Reports on Spread of COVID-19 at Restaurants
September 16 — Trump Administration Releases Vaccine Distribution Plan
September 17 — Europe Reports Rising COVID-19 Cases
September 21 — CDC Pulls Guidance Saying COVID-19 Transmission Is Airborne
September 21 — Johnson & Johnson Begins Phase 3 Vaccine Trial
September 23 — A New, More Contagious Strain of COVID-19 Is Discovered
September 25 — Midwest States See Increase in COVID-19 Cases
September 28 — Global COVID-19 Deaths Surpass 1 Million
September 29 — HHS to Distribute 100 Million Rapid Tests to States
September 29 — Regeneron Announces Positive Results for Monoclonal Antibody Treatment
October 2 — Trump, First Lady Test Positive for COVID-19; Trump Enters Hospital
October 5 — Trump Leaves Hospital, Continues Receiving Treatment
October 8 — NEJM Criticizes Trump’s COVID-19 Response; 39 States See Case Spikes
October 8 — More Americans Trust Biden to Lead Health Care System
October 8 — White House COVID-19 Outbreak Grows to 34
October 9 — US Signs Deal With AstraZeneca
October 12 — Johnson & Johnson Halts Vaccine Trial
October 15 — US Cases Spike Again; Studies Connect Blood Type and COVID-19 Risk
October 19 — Global Cases Top 40 Million
October 22 — FDA Approves Remdesivir as First COVID-19 Drug
October 23 — AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson Announce Restart of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials
October 28 — CMS Issues Vaccine, Treatment Coverage Rules
November 4 — US Reports Unprecedented 100,000 Cases in 1 Day
November 5 — Study Predicts Difficulties in Nationwide COVID-19 Immunity
November 9 — President-Elect Biden Announces COVID-19 Transition Team; Pfizer Publishes Vaccine Results
November 9 — FDA Issues EUA for Eli Lilly’s Antibody Treatment
November 11 — Indoor Venues Responsible for Much of COVID-19’s Spread
November 16 — Moderna Reveals Vaccine Efficacy Results
November 16 — FDA to Move Rapidly on EUAs for Pfizer, Moderna Vaccines
November 17 — Fauci Highlights the Need for Long-term Follow-up of COVID-19 Effects
November 18 — Pfizer, BioNTech Vaccine Is 95% Effective
November 20 — Pfizer, BioNTech Submit EUA Application; CDC Warns Against Holiday Travel
November 23 — AstraZeneca Reports Vaccine Is 90% Effective; FDA Grants EUA for Second Antibody Treatment
I know this is a very, very long list but it highlights the kind of real time information flow we have in our modern setting. Thanks to the internet, this incredible ride has never been more accessible, nor has a pandemic ever been publicized with such reach. But it hasn’t been all roses, the pandemic would become another wedge to further divide the American people into sub-groups.
What makes this all the more incredible is the setting. It’s taking place everywhere and yet, in the U.S. it is dividing people like no where else.
Additional comparison to the H1N1 Flu Pandemic Timeline
And what was the media response then? Where you afraid? Did you blame a political party for this fear?
Where Healthcare, Government and Technology Collide
We must not blame the imperfect technology of yesterday or today. Humans are gifted with the rather unnatural ability to create tools and to pass along knowledge. What we do need is to break outside of the patterns of history to make significant jumps forward. What might we change? What new risks are emerging that didn’t exist previously?
As an illustration. We all know that healthcare costs are ballooning, as a society we are also creating new expensive medial technology all the time. How will we deal with these costs over time? What if we reimagined a healthcare centric government and economy. Basically, all support systems are managed to help individuals in finding paths to contribute to each others well being.
Why would this be a new idea? We haven’t had the social, technology or scientific understanding to create the mass need for this type of government previously. This moment does potentially allow us to rethink nearly all of our core human needs and bundle them together as healthcare, or just a caring society. We could redefine the purpose of the government to provide everyone access to a healthy, fulfilling life. What if nearly all work was reimagined to produce healthy humans and human environments?
How would we get there? By creating an economical support system, that centers the individual with collective support as the core function of government. How can government provide the infrastructure needed for us to thrive as individuals and communities?
- Education
- Work
- Shelter
- Food production
- Medical care
- Mental health
- Physical care
- Physical wellness
- Medicine
- Care distribution centers
- Waste management
Technology creates new opportunities, we need to design the feedback loops and the controls to steer this economy. Our collective hearts and hands will do the rest. It’s time to dig in to what we really want, what we really need.
Break out of this perspective trap
We must end government corruption, we must recenter on providing value for each individual, and building systems of cooperation for these individuals. We must create a system that can listen to user feedback (that’s us, the user). When we accept the present as a product of the past, as an inevitability we lose the opportunity to affect our future. We must question our ways. Corruption is rampant, set in like an infection. We can see clear signs that we are in trouble. If we accept that “history repeats itself” what does that do for our energy to solve these foundational issues?
- We must grow food and treat it as a primary human need.
- We must reduce the waste and consumption of products.
- We must return to sustainable largely service based economies.
- We must do jobs that help one another, that we find valuable for one another.
- We must care for others in need, who can not at this moment, help themselves without assistance.
- We must play music, make art, explore our curiosity and dance together to enrich and capture the unique moments of our time.
We must adapt, because we are a part of nature. We must believe that this is our time to change for tomorrow.
How do we get here together?
